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GSK Gears Up for Q1 Earnings: Here's What to Expect
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GSK plc. (GSK - Free Report) will report first-quarter 2024 results on May 1, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, the company reported a negative earnings surprise of 5.26%.
Factors to Note
GSK reports financial figures under three segments — Specialty Medicines, Vaccines and General Medicines. Our model estimate for the company’s total revenues is pegged at £7.36 billion ($9.12 billion).
In the first quarter, higher sales of newer products like Arexvy, Cabenuva, Juluca, Dovato, Trelegy Ellipta and Shingrix are likely to have offset the decline in sales of older HIV drugs and respiratory medicines due to generic erosion and competitive pressure. Our model suggests the Respiratory sales to be around £1.81 billion for the quarter.
In HIV, the strong sales growth trend witnessed in recent quarters of the two-drug regimens, Juluca and Dovato and long-acting regimens, Cabenuva and Apretude, might have partially offset losses in sales of the three-drug regimens during the to-be-reported quarter. Our model estimates sales from the HIV portfolio to be £1.57 billion for the quarter.
Sales of COPD inhalers Trelegy Ellipta, Breo Ellipta and Anoro Ellipta are likely to have contributed to first-quarter 2024 sales. Our model suggests Trelegy Ellipta, Breo Ellipta and Anoro Ellipta sales to be around £596 million, £280 million and £138 million, respectively.
GSK’s key vaccine, Shingrix’s, sales showed a strong demand recovery in the United States, which — coupled with new launches in different countries — benefited sales in recent quarters. We expect this trend to have continued in the first quarter. Our model predicts shingles vaccine sales to be around £967 million.
Last year in May, the FDA approved Arexvy, GSK’s respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine, to prevent lower respiratory tract disease (LRTD) caused by RSV in older adults. This was the first RSV vaccine for older adults to be approved worldwide. The vaccine, which was commercially launched last year during the fall season, has become a key driver of GSK’s top line. We expect the company to have generated around £290 million from Arexvy sales.
Oncology sales are likely to have witnessed growth backed by the rising demand for PD-1 inhibitor Jemperli and PARP inhibitor Zejula sales, coupled with the recently launched blood cancer drug Ojjaara. Sales of these drugs are likely to offset the declining Blenrep sales, which was withdrawn from the U.S. market in 2022. Our model suggests that the Oncology portfolio is expected to have generated around £230 million in sales.
Earnings Surprise History
GSK’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters while missing the mark on one occasion, delivering a beat of 7.59% on average.
Shares of GSK have outperformed the industry year to date. The stock has gained 9.5% against the industry’s 11.1% decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for GSK this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: GSK has an Earnings ESP of -3.21% as the Most Accurate Estimate of 91 cents per ADS is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, which stands at 94 cents.
Here are a few stocks worth considering from the healthcare space, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +123.86% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Sarepta Therapeutics’ shares have increased 21.3% in the year-to-date period. Earnings of Sarepta beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, delivering an average earnings surprise of 464.56%.
CytomX Therapeutics (CTMX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +188.89% and a Zacks Rank #3.
CytomX Therapeutics’ stock has risen 7.7% year to date. CTMX beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing the mark on one occasion. On average, CytomX delivered an earnings surprise of 57.94% in the last four quarters.
argenx (ARGX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +15.09% and a Zacks Rank #3.
argenx’s stock has lost 3.1% year to date. ARGX beat earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed the mark on one occasion while meeting the mark on another. On average, argenx witnessed an earnings surprise of 14.18% in the last four quarters. ARGX will report first-quarter 2024 results on May 9.
Image: Bigstock
GSK Gears Up for Q1 Earnings: Here's What to Expect
GSK plc. (GSK - Free Report) will report first-quarter 2024 results on May 1, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, the company reported a negative earnings surprise of 5.26%.
Factors to Note
GSK reports financial figures under three segments — Specialty Medicines, Vaccines and General Medicines. Our model estimate for the company’s total revenues is pegged at £7.36 billion ($9.12 billion).
In the first quarter, higher sales of newer products like Arexvy, Cabenuva, Juluca, Dovato, Trelegy Ellipta and Shingrix are likely to have offset the decline in sales of older HIV drugs and respiratory medicines due to generic erosion and competitive pressure. Our model suggests the Respiratory sales to be around £1.81 billion for the quarter.
In HIV, the strong sales growth trend witnessed in recent quarters of the two-drug regimens, Juluca and Dovato and long-acting regimens, Cabenuva and Apretude, might have partially offset losses in sales of the three-drug regimens during the to-be-reported quarter. Our model estimates sales from the HIV portfolio to be £1.57 billion for the quarter.
Sales of COPD inhalers Trelegy Ellipta, Breo Ellipta and Anoro Ellipta are likely to have contributed to first-quarter 2024 sales. Our model suggests Trelegy Ellipta, Breo Ellipta and Anoro Ellipta sales to be around £596 million, £280 million and £138 million, respectively.
GSK’s key vaccine, Shingrix’s, sales showed a strong demand recovery in the United States, which — coupled with new launches in different countries — benefited sales in recent quarters. We expect this trend to have continued in the first quarter. Our model predicts shingles vaccine sales to be around £967 million.
Last year in May, the FDA approved Arexvy, GSK’s respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine, to prevent lower respiratory tract disease (LRTD) caused by RSV in older adults. This was the first RSV vaccine for older adults to be approved worldwide. The vaccine, which was commercially launched last year during the fall season, has become a key driver of GSK’s top line. We expect the company to have generated around £290 million from Arexvy sales.
Oncology sales are likely to have witnessed growth backed by the rising demand for PD-1 inhibitor Jemperli and PARP inhibitor Zejula sales, coupled with the recently launched blood cancer drug Ojjaara. Sales of these drugs are likely to offset the declining Blenrep sales, which was withdrawn from the U.S. market in 2022. Our model suggests that the Oncology portfolio is expected to have generated around £230 million in sales.
Earnings Surprise History
GSK’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters while missing the mark on one occasion, delivering a beat of 7.59% on average.
GSK PLC Sponsored ADR Price and EPS Surprise
GSK PLC Sponsored ADR price-eps-surprise | GSK PLC Sponsored ADR Quote
Shares of GSK have outperformed the industry year to date. The stock has gained 9.5% against the industry’s 11.1% decline.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for GSK this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: GSK has an Earnings ESP of -3.21% as the Most Accurate Estimate of 91 cents per ADS is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, which stands at 94 cents.
Zacks Rank: GSK currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks worth considering from the healthcare space, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +123.86% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Sarepta Therapeutics’ shares have increased 21.3% in the year-to-date period. Earnings of Sarepta beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, delivering an average earnings surprise of 464.56%.
CytomX Therapeutics (CTMX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +188.89% and a Zacks Rank #3.
CytomX Therapeutics’ stock has risen 7.7% year to date. CTMX beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing the mark on one occasion. On average, CytomX delivered an earnings surprise of 57.94% in the last four quarters.
argenx (ARGX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +15.09% and a Zacks Rank #3.
argenx’s stock has lost 3.1% year to date. ARGX beat earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed the mark on one occasion while meeting the mark on another. On average, argenx witnessed an earnings surprise of 14.18% in the last four quarters. ARGX will report first-quarter 2024 results on May 9.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.